Track record · 2026
Did the model pick the winner?
Each week, the model calls a score for every game. This shows how often the team it had ahead won.
…
Last five weeks
Every game
For bettors
2022 to 2025 test, graded once
2022 to 2025 did not clear the bar
A standard bet costs $110 to win $100. Bettors call that -110 odds. At that price you have to win 52.4% of bets to break even.
Spreads
…
Totals
…
We graded these seasons once, with the pick rule locked in advance. Ties against the spread (pushes) are counted but left out of the win rate.
By season
| Season | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
Live 2026
Official week-5 picks, DraftKings lines at lock.
The 6 week-6 over/under picks were voided Oct 15, and over/unders are paused. A replay of weeks 1-4 with the corrected totals formula went 6-18. The original frozen-model record remains 10-19; the replay does not replace it. The spread picks stand.
The 2026 live record starts with these picks. Our 2022 to 2025 test result stays as published: 48.8% of spread picks right, short of the 52.4% needed to break even.
…
We also track whether the Vegas line moved toward our pick between the time we picked and kickoff. A line that keeps moving our way is an early sign the model sees something real. It shows up long before the win-loss record means anything.
We compare the DraftKings line on ESPN at pick time with the same line just before kickoff. A game that missed that check keeps an nflverse closing line, labeled on the card. That line is a different sportsbook and is not this comparison.
| Game | Pick | Saved |
|---|