Backtest
2026 so far: the report card
What the locked model would have said in weeks 1 to 4 if we had run it before every kickoff, graded against the final scores.
The record
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Week by week
One dot for each pick that met the rule. Green won, red lost, and hollow tied (a push).
Three lessons
We chose these by how far the model was from Vegas. They are the biggest spread win, the biggest spread loss, and the biggest over/under loss.