How the model thinks
The model
This page shows who is good, where we disagree with Vegas this week, and how often we have been right.
Team power
Each rating is how many points better or worse than an average team we think a team is. We built it from scores through week 4, scaled for weeks 5 to 8.
Our model vs Vegas in week 5
Week 5 picks, using the DraftKings lines at lock time. We make a pick only when our model and Vegas differ by 2+ points on the margin or 3+ on the total.
The 6 week-6 over/under picks were voided Oct 15, and over/unders are paused. A replay of weeks 1-4 with the corrected totals formula went 6-18. The original frozen-model record remains 10-19; the replay does not replace it. The spread picks stand.
How often it has been right
We tested the locked pick rule on 2022 to 2025 games the model never trained on. A standard bet needs 52.4% wins to break even.
2026 live record
Week 5 picks, using the DraftKings lines at lock time