Rankings

Teams

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Before the snap, every spot on the field is worth some number of points. First-and-10 at your own 25 is worth about +1. First-and-goal at the 1 is worth about +5.5. EPA (expected points added) is how much one play changed that number.

In college: CFBD's PPA is the same idea, with a model trained on college games.

Success rate asks whether a play kept the offense on schedule. A play counts as a success if it gains 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd or 4th. nflverse counts any play with EPA above 0 instead, and the two line up closely.

EPA rewards big plays. Success rate rewards staying on schedule. A team with high EPA and a low success rate depends on big plays. For defense, lower is better.

The opponent-adjusted rating is raw EPA corrected for who a team played. Wins over three bad defenses count for less. The bars below show this season's raw EPA. The rating next to each name is the adjusted one.