Week 4, Jets at Bears
Bears 23, Jets 12
Chicago kept the ball the entire game.
The Bears ran 86 plays and the Jets ran 32. New York went 0 for 7 on third downs, so almost every drive ended fast, with five punts. Chicago went 7 for 15 and kept drives going.
Tyson Bagent's passing won it, more than the running game did. EPA asks whether a play made scoring more likely or less likely, measured in points. Bagent's 35 throws added about a quarter of a point each, roughly 8 points total. Geno Smith's 18 throws took away about a quarter of a point each. Kyle Monangai's 30 carries for 146 yards looked big, but they mostly ran clock.
The model had the Bears by 9, and they won by 11.