2026 in plain English
The one stat you need: EPA (expected points added). Before every snap, the down, distance and field spot are worth some number of points. EPA is how much one play moved that number. Add up a QB's throws and you get roughly how many points his passing was worth. Plus is good, minus is bad. College PPA is the same idea.
This week
Third downs sank three offenses. The Eagles went 0 for 12, the Jets 0 for 7 and the Commanders 2 for 15, and all three lost.
Running more plays only paid off when the plays worked. Dallas and New England won with extra snaps, but the Raiders ran 18 more plays than Kansas City and the Saints 13 more than Atlanta, and both lost.
Bryce Young's passing, worth about 21 points, was the biggest quarterback game of the week, and it beat a good Jared Goff day.
Chicago ran 86 plays and the Jets ran 32. New York went 0 for 7 on third downs, so almost every drive ended fast. Tyson Bagent's throws were worth about +8 points, and Geno Smith's cost about 5. The Bears also had 11 explosive plays to the Jets' 2.
Jacoby Brissett's passing cost Arizona about 18 points, which is one of the worst games you'll see. Jameis Winston was only slightly positive, but that was plenty. Each team turned it over 3 times, so the Giants won on QB play alone.
Houston was more efficient. C.J. Stroud's passing was worth about 16 points, the best in this game. Dallas won anyway by running 73 plays to Houston's 50.
Lesson More possessions can beat better plays.
San Francisco had 8 explosive plays and Denver had 2. Bo Nix kept the chains moving (8 of 17 on third down), but the Broncos had to earn every yard. Brock Purdy's passing was worth about 10 points.
Bryce Young's passing was worth about 21 points, the biggest QB game of the week. Jared Goff was good too (+12), but Carolina had more big plays (8 to 5).
It was ugly and close. Green Bay converted only 2 of 10 third downs. Jordan Love's passing was still worth about 7 points and Tampa's was negative, and Love wasn't sacked once while Tampa's QB went down 3 times.
Indianapolis's passing was bad (about −13). It didn't matter. Washington played a backup QB and was worse: only 28% of its plays succeeded, and it converted 2 of 15 third downs.
Lesson You don't have to be good, just better than the other offense.
Joe Burrow dropped back 58 times, but Cincinnati gained less from it than Trevor Lawrence did on 28 (+9 for Lawrence). The Bengals turned it over twice and Jacksonville didn't.
Las Vegas ran 18 more plays and had a higher success rate. It still lost, because it turned the ball over twice and Kansas City didn't.
Lesson Turnovers swing close games more than anything.
Both offenses were below average per play. Justin Herbert got sacked 4 times and threw or fumbled away 3 turnovers, and that was the difference.
Philadelphia went 0 for 12 on third down. Only a third of its plays succeeded, and Jalen Hurts was sacked 4 times. The Rams turned it over twice and still won because they stayed on schedule (half their plays succeeded).
Miami ran only 37 plays. Malik Willis's passing cost about 11 points on 20 dropbacks. Minnesota wasn't sharp, but it kept the ball.
Drake Maye's passing was worth about 16 points. Josh Allen's was barely positive. New England ran 72 plays to Buffalo's 55, and half of its plays succeeded.
Deshaun Watson's passing was worth about 11 points. Aaron Rodgers was sacked 5 times, and his passing was nearly worthless (+2).
Lamar Jackson's passing was worth about 13 points, and Cam Ward's cost about 4. Baltimore had 8 explosive plays and no turnovers.
Atlanta ran for 205 yards at 5.9 a carry, and New Orleans managed 50. Bijan Robinson broke a 59-yard touchdown on the opening drive and finished with 145 yards, and Michael Penix Jr. needed only 21 dropbacks, worth about +11 points. The Saints ran 13 more plays and still lost by 21, because only 36% of their plays succeeded (gained enough to keep the offense on schedule), compared with 59% of Atlanta's.
Lesson More plays only help if they go somewhere.
Picks
There was no official pick list for week 4. The first locked list is week 5, which starts Thursday.